Analysis of Ivory Coast Presidential Election 2025: Ouattara Seeks Fourth Term in a "Tense and Limited" Race

The Ivory Coast is set to hold crucial presidential elections on Saturday, October 25, 2025, amidst a tense political environment and limited competition. The Constitutional Council has accepted the candidacies of only 5 out of 60 applicants.

The current President, Alassane Ouattara (83), leads the race, seeking a fourth term despite legal controversy surrounding its constitutionality. Ouattara faces competition from former First Lady Simone Ehivet Gbagbo (76), who returns to the political scene with a platform focused on national reconciliation and monetary independence.

Around 8.7 million registered voters are expected to cast their ballots. The exclusion of prominent figures like former President Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam for legal reasons has narrowed the contest to less publicly influential names. The election is viewed as a test for the country's future political balance, amidst calls for transparency and broader popular participation.

5 Questions Explaining the Election Path:

1. When will the election be held?

The presidential election in the Ivory Coast will be held on Saturday, October 25, 2025. It is considered a pivotal election given the current political and social tensions and the constitutional debate over the number of terms allowed for the incumbent President.

2. Who are the candidates?

Out of 60 applicants, the Constitutional Council approved only 5 candidates, who are:

• Alassane Ouattara (83): Incumbent President, candidate for the "Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace."

• Simone Ehivet Gbagbo (76): Former First Lady, candidate for the "Movement of Capable Generations."

• Jean-Louis Billon (Businessman): Independent.

• Ahwa Don Mello (71): Independent, former leader in the African Peoples' Party.

• Pascal Affi N'Guessan (72): President of the Ivorian Popular Front Party.

3. What is the main agenda of each?

• Alassane Ouattara: Focuses on economic stability, infrastructure development, and sustained growth.

• Simone Gbagbo: Proposes national reconciliation (general amnesty and reintegration of exiles) and monetary independence (replacing the CFA Franc).

• Jean-Louis Billon: Focuses on private sector support, investment stimulation, and a liberal economic vision.

• Ahwa Don Mello: Calls for constitutional reforms and broader political participation.

• Pascal Affi N'Guessan: Advocates for social justice and reclaiming his party's historical standing.

4. When will the results be announced?

Preliminary results are expected to be announced in early November 2025 (within one week of the polling day). If no candidate secures an absolute majority (50%+1), a second round will be held between the top two candidates two weeks after the results announcement.

5. Who is the favorite to win?

Estimates suggest Alassane Ouattara is the favorite to win a fourth term, given his control over state institutions, the organizational strength of his party, and the exclusion of his main rivals. However, Simone Gbagbo's candidacy is seen as an attempt to reshape the opposition.