Cameroonian Opposition Leader Secretly Flees to Nigeria, Causing Alarm in Yaoundé

The prominent Cameroonian opposition leader, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, has secretly fled to Nigeria in a surprise move that follows weeks of presidential election results where President Paul Biya was declared the winner of an eighth term amidst widespread opposition rejection and fraud accusations.

Escape Details and Current Status in Nigeria

• Escape Route: Tchiroma, whose home in Garoua was under heavy security surveillance, managed to leave Cameroon overnight via the Benue River, exploiting weak controls on the waterway leading to Yola, Nigeria.

• Current Status: He is currently under a semi-supervised stay in Adamawa State, Nigeria, where intelligence agencies are closely monitoring his movements, though no legal action has been taken.

• Background: Tchiroma, a former Information Minister, had declared himself the winner of the election three weeks ago, accusing the Constitutional Council of "institutional fraud" in favor of President Biya. His escape coincided with a growing crackdown on opponents.

Extradition Possibilities and Cameroonian Stance

• Shelter and Networks: Tchiroma’s strong connections with influential figures in Nigeria’s Adamawa State helped secure an alternative haven to evade arrest.

• Precedent: Although no formal extradition treaty exists, the 2018 precedent of extraditing separatist leaders remains a concern, raising the possibility of a special understanding with Abuja, especially if Tchiroma's presence is deemed a threat to regional stability.

• "Lesser Evil": Positions in Yaoundé are divided; while some push for his prosecution, a security source described his supervised presence in Nigeria as a "lesser evil," suggesting he can be politically isolated without triggering an international backlash.

• Activity in Exile: Reports indicate that Tchiroma is continuing to coordinate the "ghost cities" campaign from exile, aiming to paralyze Cameroon's economic activity in protest of the election results.