Houthi Prime Minister Killed: What Is the Extent of the Israeli Breach?

In a notable turn of events, the Houthi group has admitted to the killing of its appointed Prime Minister in Sana'a, Ahmed Al-Rahwi, and a number of his ministers. This confession came after days of denial and refutation of any casualties from the Israeli strikes that targeted the Yemeni capital. This sudden admission raises profound questions about the scale of the Israeli intelligence breach within the Houthis' security and political structure and whether Sana'a has entered a phase similar to what the Dahieh in Beirut witnessed with Hezbollah, where targeted assassinations have become a key tool of confrontation.

Late Admission Reveals Internal Confusion

The official announcement from the group stated that the Israeli raids led to the death of Prime Minister Ahmed Al-Rahwi and several ministers, in addition to injuring other officials. They also appointed Mohammed Ahmed Muftah as the new Prime Minister, a move that reflects a more hardline shift within the group. This admission, following an initial denial, indicates a state of internal confusion and an attempt to absorb the shock among their supporters. Private sources confirmed that the raid targeted a meeting of prominent leaders and that the decision to execute it was made swiftly at the highest political levels in Tel Aviv, thanks to precise intelligence on the meeting's time and location.

"Sana'a on the Dahieh Path": Has the Assassination Phase Begun?

Analysts suggest that what happened in Sana'a is very similar to Israel's strategy in Beirut's Dahieh with Hezbollah, where it shifted from targeting infrastructure to assassinating field and political leaders. Israeli reports confirm that military strikes on the Houthis did not achieve the desired deterrence, which prompted Israel to prepare an assassination list that includes the group's most prominent leaders such as Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, Chief of Staff Mohammed Abdul-Karim al-Ghamari, Defense Minister Mohammed al-Atefi, and military spokesman Yahya Saree.

Unprecedented Security Measures

Following the raid, informed sources told "Sky News Arabia" that strict Houthi directives were issued to restrict the movement of political and military leaders, prohibit large gatherings, and constantly change routes of movement. Absolute secrecy was imposed on meetings, and mobile phones were banned, reflecting a state of anxiety and suspicion of an internal breach or a deliberate leak from a close associate.

The Cyber Dimension: Operation "Pager 2"?

Yemeni journalist Hani Mashhour, speaking on "Al-Tasea" on Sky News Arabia, argued that the incident goes beyond a mere military strike. He pointed out that cyberattacks in August widely affected Yemen's communication system, potentially paving the way for the military operation. Mashhour compared the event to "Operation Pager 2," referring to the past assassination of Hezbollah leaders in the Dahieh, emphasizing that the strike put the Houthis in a real predicament after they were forced to admit the death of a figure as significant as their Prime Minister.

A Vulnerability Between Arrogance and Infiltration

Mashhour believes that the Houthis, after their confrontations with the United States in recent months, entered a phase of arrogance and overconfidence. However, the recent Israeli strike revealed an unprecedented security fragility, which could be due to a sophisticated cyber infiltration or a leak from within the group itself, opening the door to suspicion and distrust among its leaders.

The Regional and International Dimensions

A broader analysis suggests that Israel is not acting in a vacuum. The Houthis currently represent Iran's most active regional arm, especially after the diminished roles of Tehran's other proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. If Israel continues to strike Houthi leaders, it would effectively strip Iran of its last regional leverage, pushing it to the nuclear negotiation table from a weaker position. However, this scenario also raises dangerous possibilities in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb, where a direct confrontation between Israel and the Houthis threatens international navigation and the security of vital waterways.

The U.S. Perspective: Will Washington Leave the Arena to Tel Aviv?

Mashhour stresses that the United States cannot allow Israel to engage in a solitary confrontation in Yemen, as this could escalate into a wider regional war. He argues that Washington must get directly involved in Red Sea security by leading an international coalition similar to the one that confronted ISIS in Syria and Iraq. He asserts that any confrontation with the Houthis would not be just a security battle but would take on major political, economic, and strategic dimensions.

The Yemeni Lesson: An Opportunity for the Legitimate Government

The Yemeni writer called for leveraging the strike to reinvigorate the Yemeni fronts, pointing to the existence of forces loyal to the legitimate government in Marib and on the western coast, as well as the Southern Giants brigades. He believes that the Israeli strike could give these forces momentum if they receive air and political support from Washington, potentially re-establishing a balance within Yemen.

Post-Strike: Lone Wolves?

One of the most dangerous scenarios is the potential transformation of the Houthis, if their central leadership collapses, into smaller groups acting as "lone wolves" similar to Al-Qaeda or Al-Shabaab in Somalia. If this scenario materializes, it could exacerbate security chaos and complicate any attempt to find a political solution in Yemen.

Iran and the Nuclear Project: A Point of No Return?

Analysts link the escalation against the Houthis to the trajectory of the Iranian nuclear file. With the Iranian axis faltering in multiple arenas, Tehran appears to be holding more firmly to its nuclear program as its last card. It is believed that a significant strike against the Houthis could be a prelude to direct pressure on Iran itself, possibly paving the way for a new phase of confrontation over its nuclear project, which it considers an existential issue.

The Israeli strike that killed the Houthi Prime Minister and prominent ministers was not just a military operation; it represented a qualitative shift in the rules of engagement. It exposed the fragile security structure of a group that long considered itself impervious to infiltration and opened the door to a phase of assassinations that could change the face of the conflict in Yemen and the region. However, most dangerously, these developments occur in a heated regional context where the calculations of Israel, the U.S., Iran, and the Red Sea intersect, making Sana'a a major testing ground for the future balance of power in the Middle East.