Iran's Growing Influence in Africa After the War with Israel: A Strategic Pivot or Temporary Pragmatism?

Following 12 days of unprecedented military escalation between Iran and Israel in June 2025, Tehran finds itself at a critical juncture, forced to reassess its foreign policy amid a severe test of its capabilities and alliances. In this context, the African continent is emerging as a potential new theater for Iranian influence, especially as it has served as an alternative arena away from traditional hotspots in the Middle East. This analysis examines whether Africa will become a genuine priority for Iran's agenda or remain a temporary, peripheral interest.

Strategic Motives: Old and New

Since 2021, Iran has adopted a strategic approach toward Africa, seeking to break international isolation and reposition itself in a changing global order. This strategy is manifested in several ways:

• Military Presence: Iran's military presence, particularly at the "Asseb" base in Eritrea, gives it a foothold at the critical Bab al-Mandab Strait, enabling it to support allies like the Houthis and monitor Western naval movements.

• Security for Economic Interests: Security partnerships, such as the "Uranium for Drones" deal with Niger, highlight Iran's pragmatic approach to securing vital resources for its nuclear program while providing intelligence and advanced technology to African regimes.

• Ideological Penetration: Tehran has invested in spreading its ideology through cultural and religious institutions like "Al-Mustafa University," aiming to build pro-Iranian networks in West and East Africa.

• Controlling Maritime Supply Routes: Iran seeks to secure its resources and supply lines via the Red Sea by supporting the Houthis in Yemen and pursuing access to ports in Sudan and Djibouti.

• Multifaceted Cooperation: Iran aims to forge alliances with internationally isolated regimes and expand cooperation in security and food sovereignty with countries like Uganda and Tanzania.

• Intensive Diplomatic Activity: Tehran has increased diplomatic visits and expanded its network of embassies and trade centers in Africa, capitalizing on the vacuum left by the withdrawal of Western powers.

Post-War Opportunities: From Necessity to Strategy

Following the escalation with Israel, the need for Africa has become more pressing for Tehran for several reasons:

• Compensating for Deterrence Losses: After its facilities were directly attacked, Iran is seeking to build an alternative strategic depth in Africa to reduce the effectiveness of Israeli deterrence and create a new geopolitical balance.

• Expanding the "Axis of Resistance": Iran is attempting to extend its ideological influence beyond the Middle East, leveraging anti-Western sentiments in the continent, particularly in the Sahel region.

• Gaining Diplomatic Support: With African nations holding around 28% of the votes in the UN General Assembly, Iran is keen to secure their support in international forums to counter isolation and pressure.

• Exploiting the Geopolitical Vacuum: Tehran is capitalizing on the retreat of Western influence, especially French and American, to present itself as an alternative partner for military regimes, as seen in Niger.

• Securing Vital Resources: Under sanctions, Iran is seeking to secure strategic resources like uranium from Niger, gold from Mali, and cobalt from Uganda, making the continent a vital component of its new security equation.

• Enhancing its International Image: Tehran is attempting to project a new image as an anti-hegemonic international actor, a narrative that resonates in some African environments.

The African Perspective: Caution and Pragmatism

Although some African countries have shown support for Iran in the face of the conflict with Israel, the overall African stance toward Iranian presence is marked by caution and pragmatism:

• Avoiding Ideological Involvement: Most African governments, particularly in Sunni-majority countries, are wary of Iran's ideological expansion to avoid sectarian tensions.

• Temporary Partnerships: African relations with Iran are often based on temporary interests, such as arms and resource deals, rather than long-term strategic alliances.

• External Pressures: Countries that grow closer to Iran face pressure from their traditional Western partners, which limits the depth of their relationships with Tehran.

Escalatory Repercussions and the Future of the Relationship

The recent tensions have threatened the fragile balance in vulnerable African regions, such as the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. There are growing fears that these areas could become proxy battlegrounds. Tensions in the Bab al-Mandab Strait also threaten the maritime security of Red Sea states, forcing African governments to choose between aligning with major powers or risking a loss of sovereignty.

In conclusion, the war with Israel has prompted Iran to intensify its involvement in Africa, turning tension into a strategic driver for compensation and influence expansion. The future of this relationship hinges on whether it evolves into a long-term strategic partnership based on mutual interests or remains a temporary tactical gamble dictated by the circumstances of the crisis.