Japan PM Shigeru Ishiba Vows to Remain in Power Despite Upper House Electoral Setback

Tokyo, Japan – Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has declared his intention to remain in office, even after his ruling coalition suffered a significant loss of its majority in the upper house of parliament during recent elections. The ballot saw a surge in support for a far-right populist party, further complicating the political landscape for Ishiba's already embattled minority government. While the upper house result does not directly trigger a change in government, it intensifies pressure on Ishiba, who previously lost control of the more powerful lower house in October and has consistently faced internal party unpopularity.

In a press conference, Ishiba affirmed his commitment to overseeing critical tariff negotiations with the United States and addressing pressing domestic issues, including the rising consumer prices that are straining Japan's fourth-largest economy. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito had aimed to secure 50 seats in the 248-seat upper chamber, where half of the seats were contested. However, as of Monday morning, they had only managed to win 47, with one seat still awaiting declaration.

Speaking earlier to NHK, the 68-year-old Ishiba "solemnly" acknowledged the "harsh result." When questioned about his intent to continue as prime minister and party leader, he responded, "That's right. It's a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously."

The election outcome, however, significantly weakens Ishiba's bargaining position just days before a crucial deadline for Japan to negotiate a trade deal with the Trump administration. Failure to reach an agreement by August 1st could lead to the imposition of punitive tariffs in Japan's largest export market. Ishiba later conveyed to TV Tokyo, "We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States... we must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realizing our national interests."

Japan is under immense pressure, with its imports already subject to a 10% tariff. The vital auto industry, which accounts for 8% of Japanese jobs, is particularly vulnerable, reeling from a 25% levy. Weak export data released last week, showing a plummeting in U.S.-bound auto deliveries, has amplified fears that Japan could descend into a technical recession.

In the aftermath of the election, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), a center-left force, now holds a total of 37 seats. The center-right Democratic Party for the People (DPP) has secured 22 seats. Notably, the far-right Sanseito party emerged as a significant player, winning 14 seats, a substantial increase from its previous single seat. Born on YouTube in 2020, Sanseito proved to be the election's surprise, campaigning on a "Japanese first" platform and issuing warnings about a "silent invasion" of foreigners.

Voter turnout reached 58%, a six-point increase from the last upper house vote, with a record number of people casting ballots in advance, partly due to the election falling during a three-day weekend. Sanseito successfully appealed to a considerable disillusioned segment of the population who feel neglected by mainstream parties and often abstain from voting.

Exit polls indicated that opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased welfare spending resonated with voters. Rising consumer prices, particularly a sharp increase in the cost of rice, have fueled public frustration with the government's economic response. "The LDP was largely playing defense in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue," commented David Boling, a director at the consulting firm Eurasia Group. "Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home."

The LDP has been pushing for fiscal restraint, mindful of a very volatile government bond market, as investors express concerns about Japan's ability to refinance the world's largest debt pile.

Sanseito, which initially gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic by spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, has successfully brought once-fringe political rhetoric into the mainstream, gaining wider support among frustrated voters. It remains to be seen whether the party can emulate the trajectory of other far-right parties it has been compared to, such as Germany's AfD and Reform UK.

"I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners," stated Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student who voted for Sanseito on Sunday. "When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected," he added after casting his ballot in Tokyo's Shinjuku ward.

In Japan, which boasts the world's oldest population, foreign-born residents reached a record high of approximately 3.8 million last year. While this still constitutes only 3% of the total population—a significantly smaller fraction than in the US and Europe—it comes amidst a tourism boom that has made foreigners much more visible across the country.