Madagascar at a Crossroads: Military Coup Disrupts Politics and Raises Questions about the Future

In recent days, Madagascar has witnessed dramatic developments plunging it into new political turmoil after the elite military unit "CAPSAT" declared its takeover, following weeks of widespread public protests that led parliament to vote for the dismissal of President Andry Rajoelina over alleged dereliction of duty. This unfolds amid accelerating economic decline, widespread power and water outages, surging living costs, and rampant corruption.

Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the elite unit, confirmed that the army will lead a fair transitional phase by forming a military panel of army, gendarmerie, and national police officers, followed by a civilian government within days. Randrianirina stressed that the aim is to "restore order" and respond to the protesters' demands, with promises to hold elections in 18–24 months involving all civil, union, and youth forces that led the demonstrations.

Today's events echo the infamous 2009 coup that brought Rajoelina to power, now himself the target of a similar move by the same military unit. The parliamentary decision to dismiss the president came after a heated session where most MPs supported accusations of incompetence and lack of transparency—amid intense debate over the legality of the process.

Simultaneously, the work of the High Constitutional Court has been suspended, deepening the uncertainty about the future legal path and the commitment of the parties to the constitution. As crowds of protesters celebrate the power shift, local and international concerns are mounting that the resulting vacuum could give way to disorder and new divisions.

The African Union expressed its "deep concern," urging the military to uphold the democratic process, while European airlines took precautionary measures amid worsening security conditions.

Today, Madagascar stands at a historic crossroads: between street aspirations for change and elite anxieties about stability and the prospects for peaceful transition. Will the country succeed in avoiding the recurring coup scenarios witnessed across Africa and lay the groundwork for a new era of transparency and participation? The coming weeks will be decisive in shaping the future of this Indian Ocean island.