"Unwavering Thirst": OPEC Maintains Global Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for 2025 and 2026, Driven by Emerging Economies

The monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for November 2025 revealed that global oil demand is firmly on an upward trajectory throughout 2025 and 2026. The organization attributes this growth to improved industrial activity in emerging economies and increasing demand for transport fuels and petrochemicals, despite the prevailing global economic and geopolitical challenges.

Steady Global Demand Forecasts:

• 2025: OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth steady at approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), unchanged from its previous assessment.

  • OECD Countries: Demand growth is expected to be around 0.1 mb/d.

  • Non-OECD Countries: These are projected to record stronger growth of about 1.2 mb/d, highlighting the role of emerging economies as the main demand engine.

• 2026: Global oil demand is expected to increase by around 1.4 mb/d year-on-year, also matching the previous forecast, with the same geographical distribution of growth anticipated.

Oil Supply: Growing Output from Non-OPEC+:

Regarding supply, OPEC forecasts that non-OPEC+ liquid production will see robust growth of about 0.9 mb/d in 2025, reaching an average of 54.1 mb/d. This is a slight upward revision (0.1 mb/d) from the prior assessment, primarily due to updated historical data for 2025.

The main drivers of non-OPEC+ supply growth are:

• The United States.

• Brazil.

• Canada.

• Argentina.

For 2026, the growth forecast for non-OPEC+ production remains at 0.6 mb/d, with the same nations continuing to be the major contributors.

OPEC+ Production and Future Outlook:

Conversely, crude oil production from OPEC+ members saw a decrease of 73 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in October compared to the previous month, averaging approximately 43.02 mb/d based on available secondary sources.

Looking ahead, OPEC concluded its report by asserting that global oil demand will continue to rise until at least 2045, with oil maintaining its position as the world's primary energy source. The organization stressed that sustained investment in production and refining capacities remains crucial to averting future supply crises.