Washington D.C. Crime: Is It "Out of Control" as Trump Claims?

In a controversial address, President Donald Trump announced plans to deploy hundreds of National Guard troops and take over the D.C. police department to "save" the city from what he called "crime, bloodshed, chaos, misery, and worse." He dubbed this initiative "Liberation Day," vowing to end what he described as "out of control" crime.

However, this narrative starkly contrasts with the statements of D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, who asserted that the city has "seen a tremendous decrease in the crime rate" and is "at a 30-year low for violent crime." Amid this clear discrepancy, a closer look at the data is essential to understanding the true state of public safety in the nation's capital.

The Reality of the Numbers: Has Violent Crime Risen?

Trump's executive order cited "a surge in violence" in Washington, D.C. Yet, official figures from the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) show the opposite. After peaking in 2023, violent crime has seen a significant decrease in 2024, reaching its lowest level in three decades.

• Current Decline: Preliminary data for 2025 indicates this positive trend is continuing. Overall violent crime is down by 26% this year compared to the same period in 2024, and robberies have decreased by 28%.

• Data Discrepancy: While figures from different sources, such as the MPD and the FBI, may differ slightly in the degree of decline, they all agree that crime is decreasing. For instance, while the MPD's public data showed a 35% decrease for 2024, FBI data showed a 9% drop for the same year. Experts like Adam Gelb, CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, confirm that this downward trend is "significant and unambiguous."

What About Homicide Rates?

Trump claimed that "homicides in 2023 were likely at their highest rate ever" in Washington, D.C., a figure he attributed to the FBI. Indeed, the homicide rate in 2023 rose to about 40 per 100,000 residents, the highest recorded in 20 years.

However, this was not an all-time high. The number was significantly higher in the 1990s and early 2000s. More importantly, the current trend is downward. The homicide rate dropped in 2024, and this year, it is down by 12% compared to the same period last year.

Carjackings: Fact vs. Fiction

The former President also mentioned a case of a 19-year-old former government intern who was injured during a carjacking attempt in early August. Trump claimed that "carjackings have more than tripled" over the past five years.

While carjackings did see a significant increase starting in 2020, peaking in June 2023, the current numbers show a decline. So far this year, the MPD has recorded 189 carjackings, down from 300 during the same period last year. To combat juvenile crime, which often includes carjackings and tends to rise during the summer months, the city has imposed a citywide curfew for minors under 17.

Comparison with Other U.S. Areas

Experts state that while D.C.'s violence level is still higher than the average for 30 other major U.S. cities studied, its downward trend aligns with what is happening across the country.

• Above-Average Decline: The homicide rate in D.C. decreased by 19% in the first half of this year, which is slightly higher than the average decrease of 17% in the other cities sampled.

• Pre-COVID Comparison: When comparing the first six months of 2025 to the same period in 2019 (pre-pandemic), the homicide rate in D.C. is down by only 3%, which is lower than the 14% decrease seen across the 30 cities.

Conclusion:

While the numbers show that Washington, D.C. still faces security challenges and has an above-average crime rate, claims that crime is "out of control" appear to be a significant exaggeration. Official data and independent analyses demonstrate that the city is, in fact, experiencing a substantial and sustained decline in violent crime, including homicides and carjackings, a trend that is consistent with most other major U.S. cities.