Cuba Under Pressure: Secret Negotiations and Potential Naval Blockade as Washington Eyes Regime Change

The Trump administration is intensifying political and economic pressure on Havana, aiming for a historic shift in Cuba’s political landscape. With oil supplies from Mexico and Venezuela plummeting to a mere 3,000 barrels a day—compared to 20,000 in 2025—Cuba faces a total energy collapse. President Miguel Díaz-Canel has admitted the country’s inability to guarantee basic services, while Washington weighs a naval blockade to intercept remaining fuel shipments.

Behind the scenes, reports suggest that high-level talks are underway, potentially involving Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raúl Castro, to discuss a transition deal. U.S. lawmakers are pushing for "maximum pressure" rather than direct military intervention, believing the system will collapse under its own weight. The Cuban military, which controls an estimated $20 billion in economic assets, remains the key factor; its alignment could determine whether the island moves toward a peaceful transition or prolonged instability.