Serious Repercussions: Iran's Scenarios for Confronting International Sanctions—Nuclear Escalation and Economic Collapse

The re-imposition of comprehensive international sanctions on Iran, a decade after they were lifted under the 2015 Nuclear Deal, has raised critical questions about Tehran’s next moves to counter what it deems an "unjust and illegal step." Iran appears to be trapped between threatening countermeasures and keeping diplomatic channels open, a difficult equation where external pressure clashes with internal calculations, especially amid growing Western accusations of nuclear escalation and undermining international commitments.

Domestic Rejection and Limited Options:

The decision to re-impose sanctions was met with sharp rejection inside Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian called it "unjust and lacking fairness," viewing it as a new blow to the nuclear agreement. Conversely, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned against countermeasures but affirmed that "diplomacy will always be on the table."

Analysts and specialists on Iranian affairs believe that Tehran's options for confronting international sanctions, especially after the European E3 nations (Britain, France, and Germany) activated the "snapback" mechanism within the UN Security Council, are extremely limited. Experts suggest that relying on Moscow and Beijing for support will not be as effective as before, given the stalled strategic agreements and the decline in Iranian oil sales even to China, leaving Iran facing increased isolation and internal crises.

Activation of International Sanctions and Details:

The United Nations confirmed the re-activation of sanctions on Iran, which include a broad economic and military embargo. The European action involved freezing the assets of the Central Bank of Iran and several other banks, banning travel for prominent officials, and imposing restrictions on the export of oil, gold, and certain naval equipment. Crucially, the arms ban and nuclear program-related sanctions were reinstated, including the prohibition of uranium enrichment and reprocessing, restrictions on ballistic missile activities, and a ban on the transfer of related technology and technical support.

The Likely Scenario: Nuclear Escalation:

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, speaking from Geneva, suggests that Iran's most probable path is to "enter a prolonged process of gradually reducing its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), perhaps even leading to its formal withdrawal." Vaez notes that Iran has already almost completely suspended International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections since the June war. He warns that if Tehran begins reactivating parts of its program without inspectors on the ground, the possibility of additional strikes against it is significant.

Regarding the role of traditional allies, Vaez affirmed that Moscow and Beijing can provide Iran with a "lifeline" that allows its economy to survive, but they will not go to the extent of allowing that economy to flourish. He concluded that "escalation is the most likely scenario," given the unwillingness of both Tehran and Washington to relax their "red lines," and Israel's readiness to "further weaken Iran."

Worsening Internal Crisis and Economic Isolation:

From London, Wijdan Abdul Rahman, a researcher specializing in Iranian affairs, emphasizes that Tehran "effectively has no options to counter the imposed sanctions," as the issue has shifted from mere Western pressure to comprehensive international sanctions that mandate compliance by all UN member states.

Abdul Rahman points out that the Iranian economy is undergoing "accelerating collapse," with the local currency continuing to depreciate, food prices soaring uncontrollably, and internal economic control being lost. Reliance on China and Russia has also proven ineffective; long-term strategic agreements (like the 25-year deal with Beijing and the 20-year deal with Moscow) were not implemented due to U.S. restrictions. Moreover, Iranian oil exports have sharply declined, dropping from about 1.8 million barrels per day in early 2024 to around 1.2 million barrels per day by January 2025, amid reports that some Chinese ports are refusing to receive it.

Abdul Rahman believes that the chances for a settlement with the West are "virtually non-existent" given the wide gap, meaning Iran is heading towards further isolation and economic collapse. He warns that these sanctions will exacerbate crises in banking, ports, oil, gas, and maritime inspections, leading to deeper internal pressures manifesting as electricity and gas shortages, company bankruptcies, and rising unemployment, which could potentially lead to a "domestic explosion."