Report: US Plans for Venezuelan Oil Threaten Global Carbon Budget by 2050

An analysis by Clement Bernard for the British newspaper The Guardian warns that any massive US move to exploit Venezuela’s oil reserves could consume more than 10% of the remaining global carbon budget required to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, which, if fully exploited, could single-handedly exhaust the world's entire remaining carbon budget.

The Impact of Trump's Expansion: Following the detention of President Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump called for $100 billion in investments to restart Venezuelan fields, stating, "We will extract quantities of oil that many have never seen before." The analysis indicates that increasing production to 1.58 million barrels per day between 2035 and 2050 would consume about 13% of the global carbon budget—equivalent to an entire decade of European Union emissions.

Extreme Carbon Intensity: The Orinoco Belt’s crude is nearly 1,000 times more carbon-intensive than Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oil. While the latter emits 1.6 kg of CO2 per barrel, Orinoco crude emits approximately 1,460 kg. Environmental activists, including Greenpeace, have labeled this move "reckless and dangerous," urging a just transition away from fossil fuels to protect the ecosystem from catastrophic climate scenarios.