The impact of Trump's victory on the economy, foreign policy, and global conflicts

With the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory in a new presidential term, attention is turning to the potential transformations that will occur on the American and global scene.

His previous term was characterized by firm national economic policies and sharp foreign policy positions on issues such as the Middle East, Europe, and China. Trump’s victory in 2024 puts the world on the threshold of a new phase that will likely witness changes in economic policies and international relations, especially on critical issues such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the war in Ukraine, and competition with China.

Economic issues: Trump is expected to strengthen the economic protectionist policies that were a prominent feature of his first term. He aims to reduce dependence on global markets and promote domestic production, known as “America First.” This may lead to increased tariffs on imported products, especially from China, which will lead to higher prices in some sectors within the United States.

Trump is also likely to reconsider international trade agreements, and may even pursue economic policies that aim to boost heavy industries and energy, especially in the oil and gas sectors, which could cause tensions with countries calling for addressing climate change. This approach could create new jobs locally, but it could deepen the climate crisis and spark domestic and international criticism.

Foreign Policy:

1. The Palestinian-Israeli Conflict and the Gaza War:

In the Middle East, Trump’s return could lead to a more pro-Israel approach, especially given his public support for it during his previous term. If the conflict in Gaza continues, Trump may take a position that refuses to pressure Israel to limit its military operations, and may provide additional support for it on the military and political levels. Such an approach could escalate the situation in the region, and increase tensions between the United States and Arab countries, especially if his policies include further normalization with Israel and disregard for Palestinian rights.

2. Conflict in Ukraine:

When it comes to Ukraine, Trump may seek to reduce the military support provided by the Biden administration to Ukraine, under the pretext of focusing on American national interests and reducing foreign spending. This could cause Ukraine’s position to decline vis-à-vis Russia, which could lead to increased international pressure to find a diplomatic settlement. While some may see this as a step towards resolving the conflict, giving up support could weaken Ukraine’s position, enhance Russia’s influence in the region, and push European countries to seek new security arrangements away from reliance on the United States.

3. Competition with China:

The conflict with China remains at the heart of American foreign policy, as Trump sees China as the greatest threat to American global hegemony. Trump’s return to the presidency could lead to an escalation in trade and diplomatic relations with China, including more economic sanctions and a ban on Chinese technology in the American market. He may seek to expand relations with Southeast Asian countries, to form an anti-China alliance, which could ignite an economic cold war between the two parties. These policies could also lead to more mutual sanctions, which would affect the global economy, especially in the areas of technology and supply chains.

Trump’s re-election could change the face of American domestic and foreign policy in controversial ways. While some Americans see his economic policies as opportunities to boost the domestic economy, his foreign policies could lead to more global tensions, from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the Ukraine war to competition with China. As Trump seeks to revive the “America First” principle, the world remains awaiting the consequences of this policy for global stability.